by
Mary Sheffield
Pollster Ed Sarpolus believes Mary Sheffield won nearly 51 percent of the vote in Tuesday's mayoral primary, thanks in part to a large number of undecided voters who ultimately chose her over Rev. Solomon Kinloch Jr. and former Council President Saunteel Jenkins in the final stretch.
Sheffield will face Kinloch in the November runoff.
Sarpolus, executive director of Target Insyght in Lansing, released a poll on July 22 showing Sheffield with 34 percent support, Jenkins with 17 percent, and Kinloch with 16 percent. Another 16 percent were undecided.
On Tuesday, Sheffield received nearly 51 percent of the vote. Kinloch received around 17 percent, and Jenkins 16 percent.
“There were 16 percent undecided, and Mary had 34 percent—so how does she get to 51 percent? It looks like the undecided broke for Mary,” Sarpolus said.
He noted that Jenkins’ campaign appeared to have run out of money and wasn’t airing many ads in the final weeks, which hurt her chances down the stretch.
As for the race between Sheffield and Kinloch, Sarpolus said the momentum is currently with Sheffield, but it’s not out of reach for Kinloch.
He pointed out that in the last primary, Mike Duggan won about 72 percent of the vote—far more than Sheffield did on Tuesday—and Freman Hendrix, who performed well in the primary, still lost to Kwame Kilpatrick in 2005.
“He has a chance,” Sarpolus said of Kinloch.
